Fifty Days
There is an increase in bellicose rhetoric emanating from both DC and Moscow about ending the Ukraine War. Trump has tried a different approach from Biden in trying to end the war. He has used more of a personal approach to negotiating with Putin. Relying on the assumption that a good personal relationship with Putin means that Washington can control both sides and force a settlement. This approach hasn’t worked yet with either Kyiv or Moscow, as both sides are intent on achieving their strategic goals.
In recent weeks, Trump has become more and more frustrated with Putin. This has led to two major pronouncements. The first was that an ultimatum was issued that after fifty days, if there was not significant progress made, that he would levy 100% tariffs on Russia and also significant tariffs on any country importing Russian oil and gas. That statement was made to target both India and China, who have imported large amounts of Russian oil, which has helped Russia’s wartime economy.
Just recently a warning was given to Russia that Kaliningrad, which is part of Russia, is surrounded by NATO, and that it would be easy for NATO to destroy it. The Russian response predictably reminded the United States that an attack on Russian territory would trigger nuclear war according to Russian nuclear doctrine.
These two events, while seemingly different since one targets the Russian economy and another threatens military attack, are part of a larger effort by the Trump administration to recalibrate its approach to Russia and the war in Ukraine. According to people working in the State Department and the Department of Defense, administration officials are discussing a multi-prong approach to dealing with Putin that is different from the incremental increase in pressure that had been previously discussed. These officials have stated that all options are being discussed and assessed.
This recalibration seems to be the real reason for the fifty day pause. The administration is seeking to coordinate its approach while adding significant pressure to Moscow to end the war. A significant escalation in the war such as aiding the Ukrainians in planning attacks on Moscow and St. Petersburg is very worrying as it could just be the catalyst that sends us into direct conflict and war. However, the frustration of not achieving at least a significant cease fire in the conflict is palpable in private discussions, leading to mounting expectations for a significant new policy towards the war and Moscow in particular.
