The Arab World Towards 2030 by H.E. Khemaies Jhinaoui

The Arab World Towards 2030

The Arab world is entering a decisive phase in its history.

As geopolitical crises multiply, international law and multilateralism weaken, and military, economic and technological power dynamics reshape the global balance of power, the region too often remains at a standstill.

Since the Baghdad Summit of 17 May 2025, no major collective initiative has gained momentum. The mechanisms inherited from 1945 are showing their limitations: limited consultation, insufficient economic integration, and the absence of a genuine collective security architecture.

At the same time, several countries — notably Libya, Yemen, Syria and Sudan — continue to face deep-seated crises. In the face of the growing influence of non-Arab regional powers and competition among external powers, responses remain fragmented.

Beyond the need to fundamentally reform the political and institutional framework of joint Arab action, five challenges should be given priority:

🔹 Consolidating the State: Strengthening institutions, preserving national cohesion, upholding the rule of law, and rebuilding inclusive social contracts. Young people must be offered new opportunities to participate in political life, assume positions of responsibility, and contribute to rebuilding the democratic state — an indispensable prerequisite for any national or regional revival.

🔹 Achieving economic and social transformation: Diversifying economies, reducing inequalities, deepening regional integration, and investing in emerging technologies and artificial intelligence.

🔹 Reforming education: Moving away from rote learning towards critical thinking, aligning education and training more closely with labour-market needs, and making knowledge a source of strategic power.

🔹 Addressing the climate emergency: Taking collective action to tackle water scarcity, desertification and food insecurity, while developing renewable energy and the green economy.

🔹 Accelerating digital transformation: Bridging technological divides, building an integrated Arab digital market, and pooling capabilities in artificial intelligence, data and cybersecurity.

By 2030, the risk is that the Arab world will develop at different speeds: some societies will advance through economic diversification, technological innovation and the energy transition, while others will remain trapped in conflict, institutional fragility and underdevelopment.

Yet this trajectory is not inevitable.

The region’s future stability and influence will depend less on its resources alone than on its ability to build strong institutions, establish collective security, and forge a genuine community of shared interests.

The Arab world must move beyond fragmented crisis management and towards the collective construction of its future.

Summary of my address at the Moroccan Forum of Asilah on “The Arab World Towards 2030” (Asilah, Agadir, 10 October 2026).