Attacking Poland

The recent drone incursion from Russian drones into Poland is extremely worrisome as it indicates that war between NATO and Russia is still possible. Poland has invoked Article 4 of NATO for consultations among member states. Officials in Washington are trying to figure out Moscow’s strategy here. They are confused as Russia doesn’t want to provoke a reaction from NATO. Kyiv’s recent attacks on pipelines leading to Eastern European countries had begun to cause a rift between the allies in their support for Ukraine. The argument that Moscow is testing NATO’s defenses seems hollow, not because it is implausible, but rather because it was a serious incursion by many drones instead of just a simple incursion.

This recent event helps Kyiv, as it bandages the rift between allies, and can be used to show Moscow’s reluctance to pursue a true peace. Expect this argument to be used heavily in the press to mold public opinion. While there is real fatigue in the West about an endless war, events on the ground continue to make a cease-fire or lasting peace difficult.

The problem Washington faces is that increased sanctions have already infuriated New Delhi, and only serves to further create a bipolar power structure between Beijing and Washington. The challenge to the liberal order is very real, and it is not possible to levy sanctions in isolation. Any new sanctions will have profound effects on the future of the balance of power.

In the meantime, common people continue to suffer. Such is the tragedy of great power competition.