Post Alaska
It was premature to make any solid conclusions about the talks between President Trump and President Putin right after the summit. As I understand it from people in Washington, Trump and Putin agreed to continue to meet. Putin argued that a ceasefire would be a waste of time and energy as it does not resolve the underlying causes of the conflict.
Now the ball is in the European’s court. Zelensky has emphatically stated that he will not give up territory to the Russians, and the Europeans have been solidly standing in support of Zelensky. In fact, many are coming to Washington with the Ukrainian leader to try to convince Trump not to believe Putin’s arguments. Many in Washington and London are concerned that Kyiv and Brussels will double down against Trump and drive him to abandon Kyiv and leave it to the Russians.
Putin is in no hurry to end this war. It has been very costly for Moscow, yet there are those in Moscow who argue that it is possible for the Russians to capture both Kharkiv and Odessa, cementing Putin’s place in history as the gatherer of Russian lands. Russians remember both Gorbachev and Yeltsin as leaders who presided over Russian decay, and want Putin to be different. They want a strong ruler who will make them proud to be Russian. For Putin, this means that he cannot back down from his demands. There is little room for error on his part, and the off ramp is very small.
It is important to note that the analysis of the war has shifted over time. When the war broke out, Kyiv was believed to be able to resist for a few days. The Ukrainians resisted and showed their ability to resist the Russian advance. The analysis shifted to discussing the possibility of Ukraine actually defeating Russia. However, as the war has continued, the Russians have been able to throw soldiers at the Ukrainians at tremendous loss of life, but to slowly make significant territorial gains.
Recent polling in Ukraine show that Ukrainians want the war to end, but the question is at what cost? Will the populace accept Zelensky ceding territory to Moscow to try to establish a tenuous peace or if that is a cost that they are unwilling to bear. In Russia, the populace also wants the war to end, but believes that the military has captured territory with a high cost of blood, and that returning any territory to Kyiv would be a betrayal and a return to the decay of the Gorbachev and Yeltsin eras.
President Trump also wants a lasting legacy. He wants to be seen as a peace maker. Further, he wants Oslo to recognise his efforts by awarding him the Nobel Peace prize. Ending the war in Ukraine would achieve this goal. However, he first has to convince Brussels, then Kyiv, then Moscow. This is no small feat. Ultimately, talking to each other is an important first step. The next step is a trilateral meeting between Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow. Several people within the administration have discussed the effectiveness of the Dayton Peace Accords, and recommend having a trilateral meeting in a place like Dayton where the negotiators will have to meet and iron out their differences.
Stay tuned, much more is yet to come.
