Driving a Wedge in NATO

According to several sources, NATO seems to be at odds over how to respond to Russian incursions into NATO airspace. Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, has called upon the Baltic States, especially Estonia, to ratchet down tensions. Tallinn recently re-invoked Article 4 of NATO, and demanded consultations to determine the best strategy to confront the threat posed by Moscow. Rutte has argued that repeated invocations of Article 4 can amount to crying wolf, and diminishes NATO’s ability to provide collective defense. Repeated invocations of Article 4 also will trigger a response from Moscow, as it is trying to drive a wedge between NATO member states.

Moscow’s strategy is dangerous, as it will lead to one of the NATO member states shooting down a plane, which will enflame the situation. Russia would be forced to respond aggressively and increase the likelihood of direct conflict between Russia and NATO. However, this would not be the first time that a Russian military aircraft was shot down by a NATO member state. Turkey downed a Russian jet over Turkish airspace when Russian planes violated its airspace during its operations in Syria. Both Moscow and Ankara worked to deescalate the tensions that this act caused, and were able to do so effectively. The question being asked in Washington is whether or not a situation like this could be managed effectively between Moscow and Brussels. Russia is hoping that bickering will increase among NATO member states, which would effectively render NATO ineffective in its collective defense. To prevent this, Brussels needs to work to make sure that all of the NATO member states are using the same playbook and that NATO itself is in the driver’s seat instead of being forced to react by its Baltic members.

It should be noted that airspace incursions are nothing new. They were often used during the Cold War to probe a country’s defenses and see how that country responds. A normal response has been to immediately scramble aircraft and escort the planes out of the airspace. Europe’s moral outrage over these incursions can lead to it being painted into a corner and forcing an immediate response that while satisfying short-term political goals, undermines the long-term security of the alliance. The proper question should be how much of a threat is the incursion and what action needs to be taken without raising the stakes.

Next
Next

The Unclear Path of Peace and War After Alaska Konstantinos Loukopoulos*