Russia’s Next Move Against NATO: What Simulations Reveal About Future Conflict

Across multiple simulation runs, roughly 60 percent of outcomes produced an expanded Russian hybrid warfare campaign against NATO, while fewer than 15 percent resulted in a direct military challenge. The findings suggest that Russia’s next move is unlikely to involve tanks crossing borders. Instead, Moscow is more likely to intensify a campaign of cyberattacks, sabotage, infrastructure disruptions, and political influence operations designed to weaken alliance cohesion without triggering a conventional war.